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Why 4 wins is more than doable in 2015 - if....

KnightNight
we get healthy play from the QB position.

We were excited to see Bradshaw explode on the scene against Fordham to open the season, while generally agreeing that his hand was on the ball a bit too much resulting in too many hits that would lead to injury. The expected did eventually happen against Eastern Michigan. We saw him at 70-80 % ( guesstimate) on Saturday and the rust was apparent - especially on pitch plays. Schurr followed by playing like AJ does - signs of superior play but remains prone to both turnover and injury. After taking a big hit on Saturday on a 3rd down run and coming up gimpy then getting his number called on a 4th -1 ( why did that happen, it appeared clear he was hurting) resulting in another big hit and game departure history again repeated itself. It is clear, at least to me, that 90% health + is required for Army West Point to compete. Our obvious unwillingness to go any deeper on the QB depth chart on Saturday defined the coach's opinion of where we lie in this position on the field. The rest of thoughts to be shared simply requires either AJ or Ahmed to be ready to go and feeling frisky every Saturday .

Bucknell, Rice and Tulane are teams that should be winnable games by any traditional measure. Bucknell is ,at best, an average FCS team that has not shown the ability to score much this year. Playing at home and doubtlessly hungry for a 2nd win should offer the right recipe for a productive day next Saturday. Army has for years now shown the ability to play "up" 1-2 year. The play is more even this year. Yes, turnovers notwithstanding, I see a team that is more than likely to show up on Saturdays. Duke is the best team we will play this year. Turnovers and yards lost on non-executed play added up quickly. As a good team does, Duke capitalized on short fields. I do not expect us to implode again this year assuming, as per paragraph 1 - we get healthy QB play from numbers 1& 2 on the depth chart.

Next up on really winnable games is Rice. Simply stated, prior to escaping with a 27-26 win against Florida Atlantic ( do you even know their nickname) they gave up a mere 119 points in 2 weeks while scoring 27 in those games. "Nuff said. This defense is not good. Yes, they have a bye week to rest and prepare for Army, but this clearly is not the team we played last season. We have played much better on the road this season and for most every Texas road trip in memory. More often than not we have seen the Army team play "up", in Texas to include an exciting last trip to Rice where Collin Mooney (from Texas of course) had a great day if memory serves me correctly, despite a near loss.

Finally, there is Tulane, the one team we matched up with well during our entire time in Conference USA. November road trips for a team from New Orleans to Michie Stadium alone is worth 7-10 points. They lost to open the year 37-7 to Duke and next 3 weeks they play Houston (undefeated), Navy and Memphis. They will likely be 2-7 when they get to New York and playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. As the title suggests - winnable.

This does not rule out the other games remaining on the schedule but as the year has progressed, it is apparent that these games not only offer us our best shots at "W's" but suggests there is a real argument that we will be favored in the home games and less than a TD when we hit the road. Hope springs eternal - a little better every week - especially at the QB position.
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Diagnosing the ongoing problems with Army Football

johngriffis7
Jeff Monken has now coached Army Football in 18 games. It is not too early to start to compare him to his predecessors and make some observations about the challenges any coach must face to get a program like Army playing consistently at a higher level.

Coach Monken is 5-13 so far. That is not a very good record and we've not played a lot of heavyweight teams either. Yet it is also not as horrible as recent coaches like Todd Berry, Stan Brock, and Bobby Ross. Coach Monken is not performing as well as coaches like Jim Young, Bob Sutton, and even Rich Ellerson at this point in their 2nd seasons. Bob Young and Rich Ellerson both won bowl games in their second seasons. A bowl appearance/victory does not seem likely at this point in Jeff Monken's second season although it is still technically possible.

4-8 was not a bad first year for Coach Monken's tenure but the team did seem to allow winnable games at Wake Forest and Yale to slip through its fingers. 2015 has featured 4 close losses so far where the Army team failed to make the plays on offense or defense needed to beat Fordham, UConn, Wake Forest, and Penn State.

And that gets me to problem Number One: This team does not win the close games. Close games it did win in 2014 were 'needlessly' close due to opponents recovering onside kicks and making dramatic late game scores to keep it close to the end (UConn, Fordham, Buffalo). Problem number one is that consciously - or more likely unconsciously - our players do not seem to expect to win. Thus, they do not play as if they expect to win. They played the first 5 games of 2015 without giving up and fighting hard to the end but those ends were consistent losses whether it was talent rich Penn State or a scrappy Patriot League Fordham team. This 'winning' problem goes back farther than the arrival of Jeff Monken on campus. Think about how Army fumbled away at least two opportunities to beat Navy in the Trent Steelman/Larry Dixon era. Those losses and the turnovers that doomed those efforts also speak to a pervasive inability to play as though you believe you will win. Turnovers are a huge indicator for me that this team has long term, self-defeating tendencies. The turnovers that I see this team making are often unforced errors. AJ Schurr in particular seems to have this unfortunate turnover/confidence syndrome and now Ahmad Bradshaw is playing the same way.

Problem Number Two has been lack of talent/lack of player depth. Although Academy standards are tough this is really a problem of recruiting. Jeff Monken and the Army Football staff appear to be deadly serious about fixing this problem. Additionally, the facilities of the program at Kimsey, the Foley Center, etc... seem up to the level of the competition. Everything I witnessed there this past weekend indicates the program makes a good impression on recruits (44-3 butt whippings aside). But there is more to recruiting than nice facilities or making a great effort. Eventually, you need to establish a reputation as a winning coach and a winning program. So far those are not accomplished. I see the current class of 2019 and incoming class of 2020 as being much stronger than our typical inbound classes under Rich Ellerson. But I am concerned that unless we finish this season more strongly that we will lose that 'new coach' momentum. We really need to show some progress in our final 6 games. Progress is measured in wins and not 'moral' victories which are really losses. If we cannot get to a bowl this year we could at least beat AF or Navy. That would be a good indicator of progress recruits can believe in.

A third problem is sustaining energy. Energy seems to be a problem for this team as the season goes along. Last season's embarrassing, inexplicable loss was at Kent State. So far this year it would have to be the awful effort against Duke. If you were at the stadium last weekend you could not help but notice the lack of enthusiasm as this Army team re-entered Michie Stadium. They clearly did not want to be back out on that field. There was effort in two drives that got inside the Duke 10 but after those failed to score touchdowns it was beatdown time. Other academy teams are also prone to this problem. This year Air Force at Navy completely self-destructed, fumbled the ball numerous times, etc...

Leadership is a problem others have pointed out and I agree but I'll let others develop that point further. So in summary I see the challenges as:

1) Will to win/belief in winning team
2) Recruiting
3) Energy level as the season progresses
4) Strong Team Leadership

What else is there?
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Anyone notice a missing position group in our 2016 commits?

jiacono
Disclaimer: Overall I am THRILLED with the talent of this class on Defense and in the offensive skill positions.
Concern: Maybe it's just my paranoia or it's too early in the season, but do we have any O-linemen offered who are close to committing? Interior D line looks a little thin as well. Or is it way too early and do I need a chill pill (as my nephews would say)? If this season has taught us anything, it's that we need depth at QB and on the O line.
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GBK Recruiting Update: Who will be next?

A.M. Allan
As we mentioned in our October 16th article “Several recruits to be on hand on Saturday”, we mentioned that CB Javhari Bourdeau would be on hand and is highly interested in Army, although presently to Alcorn State.

It is pretty much a given that by the end of this weekend, the Florida product will be the next to say yes to the Army coaching staff.

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Bourdeau with LB Coach, Jovan Dewitt after Saturday’s game
versus Bucknell
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Win big vs win ugly

mjander01
Wondering if this close win against Bucknell will have more of a carry-over effect than the big win vs. EM. While we played PSU tough, it seems that was when we got really sloppy as a team.

I get Bucknell is not a great team and we should have won handily. But, I also think this is a game we would have found a way to lose a couple of years ago.

Guess we will find out vs Rice.

Would also have to check the stats, but I think we seem to be a better Q3/Q4 team than in past years. If so, is that an indicator of bigger, faster, stronger?
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