I guess this could be described as a slightly to early prediction of sorts, but there happens to be lots of information (forecasts) that have been published if you thoroughly search for it. Then combine all that with the fantastic GBK articles and interviews, I find myself unable to hold my thoughts any longer regarding Army's 2022 team. I have virtually always held a strong optimistic outlook of Army, my cup is definitely more than half full, and this year for me has an even stronger "feel" that this 2022 team is going to be really, really good. Here is my look leading up to Coastal Carolina, a short 14 days from now. I will be there to watch the game live.
Many feel Coastal Carolina is annually close to a Top 25 team...but now let's compare them with Army's 2022 pre-season projections:
1. AP Top 25 votes: neither team has any votes.
2. Coaches Top 25 Poll: Army has three votes, and Coastal has two.
3. College Football News Ranking and (season record prediction): Army #77 (10-2) and Coastal #78 (10-2).
4. Football Power Index (FPI): Army #61 (+1.3) and Coastal #83 (-3.4) ... Army is a net +4.7.
5. SP+ Ranking: Coastal #73 (+0.6) and Army #79 (-0.8) ... Coastal a net +1.4.
6. SAGARIN Power Rankings: Coastal #81 (67.51) and Army #83 (67.00) ... Coastal a net +0.51.
Based on the above, I see Army or Coastal Carolina as being on equal footing... a toss up. Now we have to be aware that Army is on the road while Coastal has the home field advantage. Therefor it is not surprising that the opening spread is Coastal (-3.0) which often is equal to the normal advantage given the home team.
Coastal has a really top notch QB (Grayson McCall) that has put up great passing yards, CMP%, TD's, very low INTs and is also a threat to run. He is their key to a victory. My feel is that Army has to defend him and control him. Suffice to say, Army cannot let Coastal score on every possession and keep Coastal to 30 or fewer points, so how does Army accomplish that? In 2021 Coastal rushed for 229 ypg and passed for 266 ypg, at almost 500 ypg and 41 point per game. Coastal also converted 54% of 3rd downs and 77% of 4th downs. Given their returning players, Coastal will be a challenge for our defense. This will be a Coastal RPO versus an Army ground and pound triple option. Which team's offense has the advantage? Which Defense has the players and scheme to stop the other's offense? Coastal doesn't play Army's style of TO, regardless of which Army QB gets the starting nod.
a. First let's say the Army Defense is going to be good, will show up, and keep pressure on QB McCall with a well above average pass rush from Andre Carter and others. I believe Army will get 2+ sacks and enough QB pressures which will dampen/stop at least two Coastal Drives forcing them to punt. In addition I predict the QB pressures will hold McCall to around 50% completions which for him is not good, and allow Army one pass interception. Further, Army has for many years now had a very good defense against the run. Army will start 2022 by keeping total yards allowed at or under 350. Coastal will be facing a very strong defense and will not come close to their normal 500 yards of offense.
b. Army's strongest defense against Coastal that will primarily keep Coastal possessions low will be the Army offense. Ball control, long, time consuming drives, and outstanding 3rd and 4th down conversions. OK, in 2021 Coastal rush defense allowed but 134ypg against predominantly pass oriented teams. Now Army will employ an effective run game that will wear down and demoralize the Coastal run defense. My prediction is Army will make at least five TDs rushing and eclipse 38 minutes TOP. Remember what the Army run game has done against Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin in recent years. IMHO, Coastal is not in the same league with those Power-5 teams.
So...IMO Army will win their opening game on the road by one touchdown.
This is going to be a special year for the 2022 Army football team.
Go Army, beat Coastal.
Army will be 1-0 on September 3rd.
