I do so with regret and offer a humble apology because I consider myself a devout, 24-hour a day Army believer and supporter as well as having predicted 10-11 wins this season. As optimistic as I am and do consider myself, there has been a reality that has overcome me with my Army team starting the season 0-2. Can we now reach ten wins this year?? I think not with both Wake Forest and Air Force "showing out" with solid offenses and above average QBs leading those offenses. My optimism hopes that the Army players' discipline and mistake free efforts will catch up with their talent. Yes, unfortunately I do believe Army should be 2-0 if not for mistakes, poor fundamentals, turnovers, and penalties (which is a lot). The talent is there, and their results hurt and stun me.
1. The Wake Forest game is on the road and Sam Hartman is back strong. I watched him play with that dreaded "mesh" yesterday for 300 passing yards, four TDs and no interceptions. Although, Wake may well lose the two games before Army comes to town (Clemson, @Florida State) which would potentially make them more vulnerable. Never say never...ask Nebraska, ND, Texas A&M, etc. to name a few.
2. Air Force has not played the level of opponents as has Army these first two weeks, but they have been looking dominant, well oiled, and will likely be heavy favorites in all games prior to meeting Army. Consider that they currently average 508.5 yard rushing per game, and have the #4 offense nationally at 567 ypg. Army hasn't done that even when Bradshaw was leading Army's TO. But it's a Service Academy game at a neutral site in Texas where Army has been successful. Even though it's not looking good, Beat Air Force!
Losses in these two games (Wake & AFA) could legitimately mean we have four losses after November 5th. What about the remainder of our schedule? Given so many different sites that provide game outcomes, the FPI Matchup Predictor shows Army with seven contests of equal to or better than a 68% chance of winning: Villanova(87.3%), Georgia State(68.3%), Colgate(96.4%), ULM(86.7%), UCONN(90.8%), UMASS(89.8%), and Navy(80.4%). Troy is currently showing less than a 50% chance of winning on the road (48.7%). I say that by Nov 12th (Troy) the team will have gelled and be playing well enough to take a "W" in this one.
My new full season prediction also says that the running game for Army will change fortunes, mature, and bring the rushing average per game from the current dismal 190.5 ypg up to high 280-290s per game at seasons end. This foundation will guide us to an 8-4 season and berth in the Independence Bowl that CFN says could be against the Memphis team the downed Navy yesterday 37-13.
An 8-4 season record is certainly respectable and if it happens I predict many of us will be saying how well this Army team did to turn the season around from it's dreadful start.
Go Army, drill Villanova.
And Beat the hell out of Navy.