The cup is still over half full

[Big_DNY]

The good news is we have the weakest remaining schedule in the country. 2 FCS teams, and the non-service academy teams on the schedule are a combined 2-13 against FBS competition. I think a top 3 finish for the Commander in Chief Trophy is very doable for this team also (breaking into the top 2 would be a real stretch though).

Ok we need to get to 6 wins to pretend we had a respectable season.

Wins - Yale, Rice, Kent St.

Losses - Ball St., Air Force, Western Kentucky, Navy

That leaves us needing to win against UConn and Fordham to get to 6-5 and bowl eligible. Of those two, UConn might be the easier game but I don't think we would be favored to win either.

Santiago keeps fumbling and finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Schurr needs to get into the lineup..

 

[Bulletproof09]

Originally posted by Big_DNY:
The good news is we have the weakest remaining schedule in the country. 2 FCS teams, and the non-service academy teams on the schedule are a combined 2-13 against FBS competition. I think a top 3 finish for the Commander in Chief Trophy is very doable for this team also (breaking into the top 2 would be a real stretch though).

Ok we need to get to 6 wins to pretend we had a respectable season.

Wins - Yale, Rice, Kent St.

Losses - Ball St., Air Force, Western Kentucky, Navy

That leaves us needing to win against UConn and Fordham to get to 6-5 and bowl eligible. Of those two, UConn might be the easier game but I don't think we would be favored to win either.

Santiago keeps fumbling and finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Schurr needs to get into the lineup..

its not going to matter if they not using the power on those plays, I'm sorry we gave that game away because of the play calling…. once again! IM SO DONE! If Maples was getting that ball more, we would have won and you know it….

This post was edited on 9/20 7:59 PM by Bulletproof09

 

[swburke]

The Cup is Half Full - but what is in the cup?

We managed again the snatch defeat from the hands of victory. Yes we have a first year coach, but so does WF and they had a Freshman QB and were LAST in the NCAA in rushing coming into the game. The longer it stayed at 21-14 - you just have seen this too many times. The Walker fumble was a killer and the Angel fumble at the end hurt, but what actually hurt more was the Chop Block penalty that took us off schedule in the drive. Not to mention the missed FG and the onside kick that was so there and no execution.

We do have a very weak schedule and being 2-1 going to Yale was the way to go. Even with this schedule I see maybe 4 wins and as noted a Top 3 finsih in the C-n-C trophy competition.

What really burns is that all the skill folks that are carrying the load are Seniors - so not only will we win 4 games this year, the rebuilding will start next year.

I am not booking a trip to Fort Worth for the Armed Forces Bowl at this time. I am a fool and will hope - maybe in my lifetime a win over Navy and a bowl. Going to work out now - I will need to live a long time,

This post was edited on 9/20 10:31 PM by swburke

 

[KnightNight]

Title of thread is simply wrong. We will be the only BCS team Wake beats. Army football is not ready for prime time. There are many reasons for this. Many listed in other threads.Accept who and what we are today.It will be obvious when it changes.No way to sugar coat a horrible performance witnessed up close today. Getting concerned about coaching staffs' inabilit
y to make second half adjustments.

 

[centuryman]

We just lost to a Wake Forest team that will quite likely not beat a single ACC opponent this year. If Army ever wants to be a Division 1 team that consistently wins 6-7 games a year, then it must/has to beat the wake forests of the world. We can't win 6-7 games a year if we can't beat Wake forest or eastern michigan or rutgers or tulanes of the world on a consistent basis.

All that being said, if Jeff Monken the coach combined with the changes we have made to our academic requirements and our summer training can not get this done, then we can not get this done. If we are sitting here in 2017 at 2-9 again, then after 30 years I am probably finally done as an Army fan. But, in my opinion, he is going to turn this around.

......but, for the record, I also thought Todd Berry was an excellent hire back in 2001

 

[Bulletproof09]

Originally posted by KnightNight:
Title of thread is simply wrong. We will be the only BCS team Wake beats. Army football is not ready for prime time. There are many reasons for this. Many listed in other threads.Accept who and what we are today.It will be obvious when it changes.No way to sugar coat a horrible performance witnessed up close today. Getting concerned about coaching staffs' inabilit
y to make second half adjustments.

I believe we are ready for prime time baby, it's the other stuff. Not going speak just yet, but your in the right direction.

 

[aleclee]

Originally posted by KnightNight:
We will be the only BCS team Wake beats. Army football is not ready for prime time.

We had two or three of those last year (teams that beat Army with no other FCS wins).

 

[goodknight65]

I'm sympathetic with the pessimists in this thread regarding the WF game, but remain a cup-half-full man with regard to the rest of the season.

Like most fans, I was hoping to see us stop shooting ourselves in the foot on the road, but the WF game clearly showed that Monken's influence hasn't put a stop to that YET. I'm still hopeful that he'll get a handle on the problem and take the Yale game as an opportunity to fix the problems on the offense and shake the road game bugaboo. Fortunately we will be coming back home for key games against Ball State and Rice, and if we get even half of the problems fixed we should be able to beat Yale and Kent State on the road.

The factor that gives me reason for optimism is the performance of the defense this year. The defensive backfield has performed as well as fans expected, even though there have been a few missed assignments. The defensive line was putting pressure on the freshman QB most of the game, even though we only managed to get only one sack. I think that may be due to the WF QB playing a little smarter as much as anything. He threw a lot of quick strikes and got rid of the ball more quickly than he's done in the past. I think he's beginning to learn the difference between high school and Div 1.

Bateman has the defense performing at a much higher level than last year. With only 1/4 of our schedule complete and the rest of the schedule significantly easier, the stats are looking favorable:

TFLs are now at 20 compared with 58 for the season last year.

Sacks are at 3 compared to 16 last year, a little off the pace but Buffalo and Stanford have the best OLs we're likely to see all year.

INTs up to 4 with Timpf's grab which is more than half of the 7 we had all last year.

Pass Breakups are up to 11 which is also more than half of the 20 we had last year.

Passes Defended is up to 15 which is also more than half of what we had last year.

They don't provide season state to support me, but we've done a far better job of preventing the long gains this season. Despite playing a couple of high powered offenses, we haven't had a slew of long TD plays. I could do the research to back this up, but I'm fairly confident that my observation is correct on this. We effectively shut down Ty Montgomery, who is generally acknowledged as one of the top breakaway threats in the country.

Last but not least, I'm extremely pleased with the performance of out LBs which was the question mark about the defense going into the season. Timpf has exceeded everyone's expectations, and King is looking good as well. Ricciardi has shown some ability to put pressure on the passer, and he's very quick to get to the point of attack. As a former safety, he has good speed for a LB.

I kind of liked the nickel defense we had on the field with Bacon at the nickel back and Pierce and Johnson playing safeties. That could be a good combination.

The only problem I had with our defense on Saturday was against the run. We did miss several tackles that allowed them to get plus yards when we should have had TFLs, but the DBs were able to run them down and get the stop. The strategy that WF used was interesting. It looked like they were using an option like play between the QB and the RB, where the two would mesh and then the QB would either keep it or hand it off depending on what the defense did.

 

[DoubleDown4]

Would be nice ...5 more wins That would be asking to much from this Army team...after watching them play so far..BUT THEN AGAIN......GO ARMY

 

[goarmyfan]

Bulletproof09 !

We should call you "PORKCHOP" because your always " SO DONE "

 

[Bulletproof09]

Originally posted by goarmyfan:
Bulletproof09 !

We should call you "PORKCHOP" because your always " SO DONE "

 

[goodknight65]

Originally posted by Big_DNY:
The good news is we have the weakest remaining schedule in the country. 2 FCS teams, and the non-service academy teams on the schedule are a combined 2-13 against FBS competition. I think a top 3 finish for the Commander in Chief Trophy is very doable for this team also (breaking into the top 2 would be a real stretch though).

Ok we need to get to 6 wins to pretend we had a respectable season.

Wins - Yale, Rice, Kent St.

Losses - Ball St., Air Force, Western Kentucky, Navy

That leaves us needing to win against UConn and Fordham to get to 6-5 and bowl eligible. Of those two, UConn might be the easier game but I don't think we would be favored to win either.

Santiago keeps fumbling and finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Schurr needs to get into the lineup..

According to a report by the Times Herald, only one of our FCS games can be counted for bowl eligibility, which will make the situation considerably tighter. We got a waiver for counting a team that doesn't provide athletic scholarships but not for the one FCS win rule. That means we need 4 more FBS wins to be bowl eligible, and the bowl we're aligned with won't wait to see the results of the Navy game.

If we lose both FCS games, we shouldn't go to a bowl game anyway, so it all hinges on winning 4 more FBS games. The four I think we have the best chance of winning are:

Ball State: BUS (1-3) has only one win against an FCS team, lost to the second FCS team they played and lost to Toledo. Mann is not nearly as good at QB as Wenning was, and we play them at Michie.

Kent State: KSU (0-3) is a mere shadow of the 2012 team that went 11-3. They have a good young quarterback who can run as well as pass, but the rest of the team is mediocre at best. If we don't shoot ourselves in the foot on the road again, this should be a W.

Air Force: AFA (2-1) is better than last season and have already won as many as they did all year, but only one of their opponents, Wyoming, was much of a challenge. Their two wins come against Nicholls State a 0-4 FCS team ranked 211 by Sagarin, and Georgia State, which is still on probation as an FBS team and is ranked 195 by Sagarin. They played a tough game against conference rival Wyoming but had trouble moving the ball on the ground against them. Pearson is back and is throwing the ball more than they did last year. He has a good receiver in Robinette that our CBs will have to cover. We played them well at home two years ago and should do so again.

UConn: UConn is 1-3 with a new HC. They played their first three games at home losing to 4-0 BYU and 3-1 Boise State, but edged Stony Brook 19-16 in OT. They lost their only away game to USF 10-17. Yankee Stadium will be a neutral site for the game, but we did reasonably well against Rutgers last time we played there. At this point I think it will be a very tough win for us but we'll know more as the season progresses.

Rice has lost to three good teams and is stronger than their 0-3 record would indicate. They lost their first two games on the road to #17 Notre Dame and #8 Texas A&M and then dropped a close contest to FBS newcomer Old Dominion, which has shown they're capable of winning at FBS level with a 3-1 record. We play Rice at Michie, which is will help our chances, but don't forget they destroyed AFA in a bowl game a couple of years ago, and know how to play the triple option.

Western Kentucky rankes #2 in passing and #3 in total offense. We'll know more after they play Navy this weekend, but I don't like our chances of beating them in Bowling Greeen.

 

[KnightNight]

I'm sympathetic with the pessimists in this thread regarding the WF game, but remain a cup-half-full man with regard to the rest of the season.

Like most fans, I was hoping to see us stop shooting ourselves in the foot on the road, but the WF game clearly showed that Monken's influence hasn't put a stop to that YET. I'm still hopeful that he'll get a handle on the problem and take the Yale game as an opportunity to fix the problems on the offense and shake the road game bugaboo. Fortunately we will be coming back home for key games against Ball State and Rice, and if we get even half of the problems fixed we should be able to beat Yale and Kent State on the road.

The factor that gives me reason for optimism is the performance of the defense this year. The defensive backfield has performed as well as fans expected, even though there have been a few missed assignments. The defensive line was putting pressure on the freshman QB most of the game, even though we only managed to get only one sack. I think that may be due to the WF QB playing a little smarter as much as anything. He threw a lot of quick strikes and got rid of the ball more quickly than he's done in the past. I think he's beginning to learn the difference between high school and Div 1.

Bateman has the defense performing at a much higher level than last year. With only 1/4 of our schedule complete and the rest of the schedule significantly easier, the stats are looking favorable:

TFLs are now at 20 compared with 58 for the season last year.

Sacks are at 3 compared to 16 last year, a little off the pace but Buffalo and Stanford have the best OLs we're likely to see all year.

INTs up to 4 with Timpf's grab which is more than half of the 7 we had all last year.

Pass Breakups are up to 11 which is also more than half of the 20 we had last year.

Passes Defended is up to 15 which is also more than half of what we had last year.

They don't provide season state to support me, but we've done a far better job of preventing the long gains this season. Despite playing a couple of high powered offenses, we haven't had a slew of long TD plays. I could do the research to back this up, but I'm fairly confident that my observation is correct on this. We effectively shut down Ty Montgomery, who is generally acknowledged as one of the top breakaway threats in the country.

Last but not least, I'm extremely pleased with the performance of out LBs which was the question mark about the defense going into the season. Timpf has exceeded everyone's expectations, and King is looking good as well. Ricciardi has shown some ability to put pressure on the passer, and he's very quick to get to the point of attack. As a former safety, he has good speed for a LB.

I kind of liked the nickel defense we had on the field with Bacon at the nickel back and Pierce and Johnson playing safeties. That could be a good combination.

The only problem I had with our defense on Saturday was against the run. We did miss several tackles that allowed them to get plus yards when we should have had TFLs, but the DBs were able to run them down and get the stop. The strategy that WF used was interesting. It looked like they were using an option like play between the QB and the RB, where the two would mesh and then the QB would either keep it or hand it off depending on what the defense did.
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Lots of positive analysis , which is the way of loyal Army fans and some valid points "65". In the end the season is defined weekly.... now time to ramble.

It was with great interest I watched Georgia Southern play Appalachian St. last night on the "U". It is simply exciting to watch a QB who has the ability to take over a game. It may be the biggest overall gap in our ability to right now. There is improvement across many segments of the team but nothing is going to change the current talent level gaps that do exist vs. most FBS teams playing the game.

With that noted, we have more depth in talent than Ivy League teams. It is simply essential to beat Yale based simply on counts of recruited football players we have. Let's win our second game before talking about bowl games. Good health and weekly improvement should be all we are looking for as we watch a program that has won 8 games over the prior 3 seasons. Sure the schedule appears to line up favorably but we need above expectations performance from the QB position if we seriously believe our dreams will be realized during the 2014 season.

 

[goodknight65]

Originally posted by KnightNight:

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Lots of positive analysis , which is the way of loyal Army fans and some valid points "65". In the end the season is defined weekly.... now time to ramble.

It was with great interest I watched Georgia Southern play Appalachian St. last night on the "U". It is simply exciting to watch a QB who has the ability to take over a game. It may be the biggest overall gap in our ability to right now. There is improvement across many segments of the team but nothing is going to change the current talent level gaps that do exist vs. most FBS teams playing the game.

The biggest talent gap is between Power 5 conference teams and all other FBS teams, and since the Power 5 comprises about half of the FBS, your statement is probably accurate. The talent gap between the SAs and the lesser 5 conferences is not nearly as great, and we compete fairly well with teams like Buffalo, UMass, and even Ball State. There are only a few lower tier programs that compete at all with the Power 5 teams, and none of them can compete with the top 40 teams, which are all Power 5. About the only time they do is when they're local talent that want to play close to home. The rating schemes used by Rivals and Scout are reasonably valid when it comes to identifying 4 and 5 star recruits, less valid with 3 stars and not very useful at 2 stars and below, which is where most lower tier programs including the SAs get more than 90% of their recruits. That's not going to change significantly going forward. We will continue to rely on recruiting large numbers of unproven talent and sorting them out when they arrive. At best we can hope to level the recruiting field with AFA and Navy.

 

[ashokan]

"The good news is we have the weakest remaining schedule in the country. 2 FCS teams.."


All of a sudden Fordham is looking pretty dangerous lol

 

[Bulletproof09]

Originally posted by ashokan:

"The good news is we have the weakest remaining schedule in the country. 2 FCS teams.."


All of a sudden Fordham is looking pretty dangerous lol

We just gave two games away back to back! Not cause we didn't have the right players either! Stanford OK we eat that one. If you can't work the players you got, how are we going to win any game? IM LOST
This post was edited on 9/27 8:12 PM by Bulletproof09

 

[ashokan]

Well I only saw the first half of Wake game and I saw a lot of great football plays. I also saw guys out of position and giving up plays for dumb reasons. Coach knew what was wrong (I liked he knew right away and didn't seem dazed and confused like Ellerson could be) and was upset while being interviewed going into the locker at the half. I didn't expect great games against Stanford and Wake because they were away and both played Army and the option last year (no element of surprise). Yale I thought was a win but the team probably did too and forgot to play like they did vs Stony Brook. Its a bad mix when one team is sleepwalking and the other team is celebrating 100 years of history. I'm still optimistic about the new coach etc. He inherited a bad scene without a lot of options for change. One thing though is the mental errors. Army players are supposed to be smart but they seem to make mental errors more than other teams (or maybe other teams can just get away with them more). Of course the kicking game just stinks and has for awhile. PATs and 20 yard field goals are high drama in Army ball. Missing two PATs vs Buffalo showed me the season wouldn't be full of stardust and bowl games.

 

[goodknight65]

Originally posted by ashokan:
Well I only saw the first half of Wake game and I saw a lot of great football plays. I also saw guys out of position and giving up plays for dumb reasons. Coach knew what was wrong (I liked he knew right away and didn't seem dazed and confused like Ellerson could be) and was upset while being interviewed going into the locker at the half. I didn't expect great games against Stanford and Wake because they were away and both played Army and the option last year (no element of surprise). Yale I thought was a win but the team probably did too and forgot to play like they did vs Stony Brook. Its a bad mix when one team is sleepwalking and the other team is celebrating 100 years of history. I'm still optimistic about the new coach etc. He inherited a bad scene without a lot of options for change. One thing though is the mental errors. Army players are supposed to be smart but they seem to make mental errors more than other teams (or maybe other teams can just get away with them more). Of course the kicking game just stinks and has for awhile. PATs and 20 yard field goals are high drama in Army ball. Missing two PATs vs Buffalo showed me the season wouldn't be full of stardust and bowl games.

We looked bad enough as it was, but penalties killed any chances we had. We had a couple of rookies starting on the OL, which didn't help matters. Hobbs started at RT and the plebe Villegas started at RG, but they weren't the guys getting the penalties for the most part.

Army's first possession, we get to the Yale 26 and Schurr gets a delay of game penalty. Now we are first and 15, attempt two passes one of which is incomplete and the second is a sack, and we're forced to punt. Stupid penalty, no excuse.

Yale's first possession, no penalties and we force them to punt.

Army's second possession, no penalties, we drive the field and score.

Yale's second possession, Army pass interference on 3d and 8 gives Yale a first down plus 17 yards and they score.

Army's third possession, false start penalty puts us at 2d and 14. We get 12 yards back but have to punt on 4th and 1. Stupid penalty.

Yale misses FG on their next possession.

Army's fourth possession, no penalties, 80 yard TD drive.

Yale gets a 70 yard TD without our help on the next drive.

Army's fifth possession, no penalties, 70 yard TD drive

Yale's next possession they get a false start penalty and have to punt.

Army's final drive of the half, no penalties but 4 incomplete passes. Can't score in 33 seconds.

2d Half

First possession by Yale, we get a Pick six courtesy of Timpf

Second possession by Yale, we force them to punt but a roughing the kicker penalty gives them a second chance and they drive they launch a 62 yard scoring drive. Announcer called it a too much effort penalty but it was still stupid.

Army's first possession of the half, we get a false start penalty, but for once overcome it and score a TD.

Yale overcomes two penalties to score on their next possession.

Army gets the ball first and 10 on our 22. 9 yard gain by Maples is negated by an illegal block penalty and instead of being on our own 31 with a yard to go, we're on our 12 with 20 to go. We get 10 back but have to punt.

Yale gets the ball back on their 27 and scores without our help. Score tied 36-36

Army gets the ball on our 25 and Kemper runs for 74. No chance for penalties and we score: 43-36. End of 3d Quarter

Fourth Quarter:

Yale fumbles on our 13 yard line and we avert giving up another score as Timpf recovers.

We drive to the Yale 15 and can't get a half yard on 4th down. Yale gets the ball back on downs. No penalties but horrible blocking,

We hold Yale but they punt it to our 1. We get only 9 yards in 3 downs and have to punt. Yale gets the ball on our 45 and drives for a TD. Game tied 43-43

Army still has a chance to win it with 1:42 left, but a holding penalty negates a first down on the Army 47 and gives us 2-15 from our own 40 instead. Three completed passes by Santiago get us back to the Yale 28 with 9 seconds remaining. We rush for 3 yards and then Growchowski misses the FG. We gave up 17 yards on that stupid holding penalty that we could have used on Grochowski's attempt.

We didn't have anywhere near that number of penalties last season, and if we don't get them under control, we're going to continue losing.



This post was edited on 9/28 12:59 AM by goodknight65