So, starting to think there is an Occam's razor thing going on with low win totals this year which is fairly well explained by the egregious number of fumbles we've had. Started to look thru the data:
Army (fumbles per game and wins per season)
2010: 1.7/7
2011: 3.1/3
2012: 2.7/2
2013: 2.0/3
2014: 1.7/4
2015: 3.2/4
Navy
2010: 1.5/9
2011: 1.6/5
2012: 1.8/8
2013: 1.2/9
2014: 1.9/8
2015: 1.1/10
AF
2010: 1.6/9
2011: 2.1/7
2012: 2.5/6
2013: 1.7/2
2014: 1.7/10
2015: 1.7/8
GT
2010: 2.5/6
2011: 2.1/8
2012: 1.9/7
2013: 2.5/7
2014: 1.5/11
2015: 2.8/3
R^2 on this is 0.45. Some notable things. Army is a fumble machine compared to Navy and AF. Good year in 2010 at 1.7 and the associated 7 wins and bowl victory. Navy is differentially better than all with ball security. Navy is having lowest fumbles per game this year since 2010. GT has incredibly high correlation and R^2 with fumbles vs wins. GT had lowest number last year and 11 wins. Highest total this year and 3 wins.
Note this is fumbles and not fumbles lost. Hoping I cut and pasted the data right into excel. If not, I'm sure someone on the board will come thru with a correction.
So, we seem to debate a lot about player talent vs coaching accounting for lack of wins this year. To me, we simply can't keep the ball off the ground. N
Army (fumbles per game and wins per season)
2010: 1.7/7
2011: 3.1/3
2012: 2.7/2
2013: 2.0/3
2014: 1.7/4
2015: 3.2/4
Navy
2010: 1.5/9
2011: 1.6/5
2012: 1.8/8
2013: 1.2/9
2014: 1.9/8
2015: 1.1/10
AF
2010: 1.6/9
2011: 2.1/7
2012: 2.5/6
2013: 1.7/2
2014: 1.7/10
2015: 1.7/8
GT
2010: 2.5/6
2011: 2.1/8
2012: 1.9/7
2013: 2.5/7
2014: 1.5/11
2015: 2.8/3
R^2 on this is 0.45. Some notable things. Army is a fumble machine compared to Navy and AF. Good year in 2010 at 1.7 and the associated 7 wins and bowl victory. Navy is differentially better than all with ball security. Navy is having lowest fumbles per game this year since 2010. GT has incredibly high correlation and R^2 with fumbles vs wins. GT had lowest number last year and 11 wins. Highest total this year and 3 wins.
Note this is fumbles and not fumbles lost. Hoping I cut and pasted the data right into excel. If not, I'm sure someone on the board will come thru with a correction.
So, we seem to debate a lot about player talent vs coaching accounting for lack of wins this year. To me, we simply can't keep the ball off the ground. N
