Army-West Virginia (Liberty Bowl) Prediction Thread

jrogue44

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I truly believe even the Coach's don't know what they are going to do until all the Players get back and get tested. Our Game Plan will be shaped more so by Negatives and Positives than X's and O's...all we may Hope for is the Majority of 2-Deep has burned through the Covid-19 already and that there won't be any Major "surprises" between Tuesday and Thursday when Team leaves for Memphis.
 

jiacono

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Thanks @jrogue44 . Great interview there. Coach Brown is a very likeable guy...humble; funny; respectful; knowledgeable.
Can never put too much stock in a press conference but it looks like WVU will be well prepared; won’t be taking us lightly; and are excited to play.
An Army win in this game will be a major accomplishment and put a nice bow on the 2020 season.
It sounds like they’ll play their base D, which I think GL said is a 3-4? I’m sure they’ll drop their safeties down into the box.
It was interesting that he spent so much time on special teams. I think he realizes that in a close game with us what a huge difference they can make.
Should be a fun game. I hope we can move the ball and put enough points up to hang with them and maybe come away with a W.
FPI gives WVU a 73% chance to win.
 

DeoGratias

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I keep thinking back to our collective pre-season evaluation of Army football strengths and weaknesses. Many of us showed concern for the consistency and durability of our quarterbacks. This has played out during the season; however, this team has shown the ability to rally around whoever's turn at quarterback it is. I am completely skeptical about any prediction for injuries and illness throughout are no doubt taking a toll on this Army Black Knight team. Not to mention that they have literally been in lockdown for six months.
 
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hueybird

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I keep thinking back to our collective pre-season evaluation of Army football strengths and weaknesses. Many of us showed concern for the consistency and durability of our quarterbacks. This has played out during the season; however, this team has shown the ability to rally around whoever's turn at quarterback it is. I am completely skeptical about any prediction for injuries and illness throughout are no doubt taking a toll on this Army Black Knight team. Not to mention that they have literally been in lockdown for six months.
We here were also worried about the 2020 Defense, but it sure has been a pleasant surprise!
 

hueybird

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Quotes from WVU HC Brown on Army:

What Neal Brown had to say before the Liberty Bowl (247sports.com)

I also saw a comment on the EER website where the poster was curious about the the recently posted depth chart, as though he was concerned about players NOT listed on the chart. We already know one WVU kid has opted out...how many more?
Here I am, looking for any advantage for this tough game coming up.
By the way, Sal's interview with Marquel Broughton was a pleasure to watch. Just a Yearling, that kid.
 
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KnightNight

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UWV is not that Houston team at any level.UWV is an upper 1/3 power 5 program. There is AT LEAST the same talent gap between Army and Cincinnati; than us and the Mountaineers -likely wider.

I firmly believe the first series or 2 will decide the game. If our D holds and our O has 6 minutes plus possessions the ideal tone will be set . We’ll have to execute on some plays outside the tackles. If UWV comes out fast and moves the ball easily through the air the tone will be set. If we get down by 2 scores I do not see us coming back. I do see a reasonable probability that UWV comes out a little rusty with 25 days off. We’ll show up. Army 17 UWV 23. Will be well worth watching. Hoping for the opposite score but confidence in the offense has to be earned.
 

LanguageMajor

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When facing a defense with stud defensive linemen, I can't help but think about the Nikita Whitlock game (vs WF 2013). One stud defensive lineman can set up shop in the backfield and disrupt the TO. Well, WV has two: the Stills brothers. Dairus is a 1st Team All American, and his little brother Dante is taller and probably stronger. Watch him truck some guys against Baylor.

On a good note, as others have observed, WV will be without its top tackler this season (Fields, LB). So, if we can find a way to neutralize the d-line, there should be some chunk yards available.

Watched a couple of WV games from this season (Iowa State, Baylor, TCU). One interesting stat jumped out (believe it was from the IA State game): WV averages 67ypg when it loses and 200+ypg when they win. The Cyclones held them to 54 yards rushing, and they won.

So, my keys to the game:
1. Block the Still brothers - one caveat: no reach blocks, they are too fast. Reach blocks are a golden invitation to getting caught in the backfield.
2. Stop Leddie Brown (RB) - as he goes, so goes WV. Keep him under 100yds and it significantly improves the chances of winning. Oh, he catches passes out of the backfield too.
3. Be alert to the trick plays - WV runs a reverse-flea flicker and I saw at least one fake punt (early in the game against TCU, believe).

I am cautiously optimistic about the game. Again, we see two really good defenses against average offenses.

I think it will be more Army vs. Air Force than Army vs. Tulane.

Who said Quinn Maretzki would be the MVP?

Army 13
WV 10
 

jiacono

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Oh, and who else would love to see a Mercer-syle line shift before the snap?
(and the resulting WV DC head-explosion)
Really good point about no reach blocks. Whenever we do that, we are putting our guys at a serious disadvantage against quicker DLs. Remember how many plays Navy and AF ran down from the backside? Double or triple that number against the Stills brothers.
Only way to block them will be double team them at point of attack. Center/guard and run ISO with McCoy lead blocking for TT from gun. This play worked really well against the other academies and could work well against WVU too.
We could also run midline and option the play side Stills brother so we don’t have to block him.
 

jrogue44

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BD is going to have to run some plays out of Miltiple WR sets and/or motion out of Sets to Get as many defenders out of Box and Create Running lanes where OL can Double a Stills brother and scrape to LB. Remember we only need 3 yards a play to make it a Long Long Day for WV, if BD stays in tight sets thinking we can get to edge or Man up, it's gonna be a Long Day for Army O...
 

hueybird

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Really good point about no reach blocks. Whenever we do that, we are putting our guys at a serious disadvantage against quicker DLs. Remember how many plays Navy and AF ran down from the backside? Double or triple that number against the Stills brothers.
Only way to block them will be double team them at point of attack. Center/guard and run ISO with McCoy lead blocking for TT from gun. This play worked really well against the other academies and could work well against WVU too.
We could also run midline and option the play side Stills brother so we don’t have to block him.
TT getting rundown from the backside against AFA was nerve wracking.
 
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Dec 30, 2020
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It's hard to talk smack against a team and fans of guys that go out protect our freedoms so I won't even try that. I'm excited to see what WVU can do against Army. I'm surprised at all of the predictions of keeping WVU under 20 points - that hasn't happened often this year, but who knows. I'd say maybe that's the indicator - if WVU scores 24+ then we probably win.

I won't make a prediction as bowl games are tough with the longer than usual lay-off and unknown opponents. I'm just glad we're playing a quality opponent.

Good luck on Thursday.
 
Dec 30, 2020
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Quotes from WVU HC Brown on Army:

What Neal Brown had to say before the Liberty Bowl (247sports.com)

I also saw a comment on the EER website where the poster was curious about the the recently posted depth chart, as though he was concerned about players NOT listed on the chart. We already know one WVU kid has opted out...how many more?
Here I am, looking for any advantage for this tough game coming up.
By the way, Sal's interview with Marquel Broughton was a pleasure to watch. Just a Yearling, that kid.

WVU fan here.......... visiting your board, first of all, thanks to all who served our
country..... in response to the question besides Tony Fields, we have one other
player who just recently entered the transfer portal, a backup DL, Quay Mays,
who plays behind our All-American DL Darius Stills. One other player, a 2nd
team LB, Exree Loe, has been declared out due to an unspecified injury.

One Q: Is your QB Tyhier Tyler good to go?

Most, if not all, of our fan base always roots for the Army re whoever they
play. Hope no player gets hurt tomorrow.
 

ArmyMadDog

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WVU fan here.......... visiting your board, first of all, thanks to all who served our
country..... in response to the question besides Tony Fields, we have one other
player who just recently entered the transfer portal, a backup DL, Quay Mays,
who plays behind our All-American DL Darius Stills. One other player, a 2nd
team LB, Exree Loe, has been declared out due to an unspecified injury.

One Q: Is your QB Tyhier Tyler good to go?

Most, if not all, of our fan base always roots for the Army re whoever they
play. Hope no player gets hurt tomorrow.

Welcome and thanks and from what I am hearing, Tyler will be good to go. However, I predict that it will be both Tyler and Christian Anderson sharing QB responsibilities tomorrow.
 

NJFAN

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All this time, I thought West Virginia was in the Top 25, but I was wrong. Either way, with a win tomorrow, I anticipate that we will finish the season in the Top 25.
 
Dec 30, 2020
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To be honest the option scares the Poo Poo out of me. If it is on point it is pretty much unstoppable. We have to keep y’all from staying on the field!! If our D can get some negative plays, we should win their game. If not we’ll it’s going to be a long game for our D!!
WVU 24
Army 10
 
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WVU fan and Air Force veteran. Thank you men and women of West Point!

I think it’s a low scoring, hard fought victory for the Mountaineers. Neal Brown is building something special and use this as a springboard into Big12 contenders next year.

WVU 27
Army 17
 
Jul 25, 2008
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Bad news: I believe Army will have to score some points to win this one.

Good news: Our young men were willing to stay at West Point until Christmas Eve to wait (and prepare while waiting) on a bowl game. I have no doubt the Black Knights of the Hudson will play with a fire, passion and grit that fans of other teams can only dream of having.

Go Army - Beat the ever lovin’ hell outta wvu!!!

ARMY - 31
wvu - 27
 
Dec 31, 2020
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When facing a defense with stud defensive linemen, I can't help but think about the Nikita Whitlock game (vs WF 2013). One stud defensive lineman can set up shop in the backfield and disrupt the TO. Well, WV has two: the Stills brothers. Dairus is a 1st Team All American, and his little brother Dante is taller and probably stronger. Watch him truck some guys against Baylor.

On a good note, as others have observed, WV will be without its top tackler this season (Fields, LB). So, if we can find a way to neutralize the d-line, there should be some chunk yards available.

Watched a couple of WV games from this season (Iowa State, Baylor, TCU). One interesting stat jumped out (believe it was from the IA State game): WV averages 67ypg when it loses and 200+ypg when they win. The Cyclones held them to 54 yards rushing, and they won.

So, my keys to the game:
1. Block the Still brothers - one caveat: no reach blocks, they are too fast. Reach blocks are a golden invitation to getting caught in the backfield.
2. Stop Leddie Brown (RB) - as he goes, so goes WV. Keep him under 100yds and it significantly improves the chances of winning. Oh, he catches passes out of the backfield too.
3. Be alert to the trick plays - WV runs a reverse-flea flicker and I saw at least one fake punt (early in the game against TCU, believe).

I am cautiously optimistic about the game. Again, we see two really good defenses against average offenses.

I think it will be more Army vs. Air Force than Army vs. Tulane.

Who said Quinn Maretzki would be the MVP?

Army 13
WV 10
All. I am a WVU season ticket holder. Lots of good and accurate posts here on WVU. This one hit me as pretty good keys to stopping us. If we win the LOS we do pretty well. If we can run the ball on O and get penetration on DL it will help. We have pretty good DB’s but have had some trouble at LB, especially tomorrow without Fields playing. To me, us being able to run is key. If we can run and stay balanced with play action. At least that is historically how it’s been this season.
Good luck tomorrow! Hoping for an injury free, fun game! Thank you all for your service!!!
 

wilpf33

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Nov 23, 2020
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Let's just play hard Army football on both sides of the ball and let the chips fall where they may and stop the nonsense.
Agreed. Why not let the players play their own game? Quarterback calls the plays. Coaching by committee stays home for a change. See what happens
 
Dec 31, 2020
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Likely close early, WVU pulls out in second half
WVU 35
Army 20

My prediction is just my opinion, no doubt bowl games are a crap shoot. Losing Tony Fields hurts WVU but we have other good DLineman besides Stills brothers which could offset the loss of our top Linebacker, because I expect some 4 DL sets. Linebacking will be key for WVU. If the Mountaineers get ‘any’ quality play from that group, it will be a wider spread in favor of WVU. If not, Army can keep it closer and win. Good luck and be safe everyone!
 
Dec 31, 2020
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Sorry guys but we need the win more then you guys. Defense may get burned on a few long runs. But in the end just are physicality will win in the end. A close one for awhile but wvu wins 34-20
 

wilpf33

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Why not let the players play their own game? Quarterback calls the plays. Coaching by committee stays home for a change. See what happens.
 

jiacono

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To be honest the option scares the Poo Poo out of me. If it is on point it is pretty much unstoppable. We have to keep y’all from staying on the field!! If our D can get some negative plays, we should win their game. If not we’ll it’s going to be a long game for our D!!
WVU 24
Army 10
This is a solid pick as it was the score of the Cincinnati game and I see WVU as similar skill level to Cincy.
I hope we (Army) runs more true triple against y’all. We have pretty much abandoned the true triple option most of this year in favor of straight power running plays and pre-determined reads due to the inexperience of our QB’s.
Thanks for visiting our board. I was born in WV and my Mom’s family is all from WV. I have a bunch of friends and relatives who went to WVU, but as a proud member of the West Point class of ‘93 (Defenders of the FREE), I will be rooting against the Mountaineers for the first time today. Go Army!!
 

jiacono

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Sorry guys but we need the win more then you guys. Defense may get burned on a few long runs. But in the end just are physicality will win in the end. A close one for awhile but wvu wins 34-20
You aren’t going to out physical Army. WVU has better athletes but they better get ready for a 60-minute bar room brawl. This isn’t the Big 12. Ask OU. Not saying WVU won’t win. Just saying you aren’t more physical.
 
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TheWestPoint07

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I have been hearing that WVU has lost some key players (not sure who they are) and of course, we don’t have any idea who will be lining up until kick off. Once the dust settles with all that, I still think it will be a close game that will go down to the wire.
 

regfadden

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Here's a not so insignificant update from ESPN statistics.

Given the result of the Duke's Mayo Bowl between Wisconsin and Wake Forest (BTW a 42-28 Wisconsin victory), Army now holds the distinction of carrying the #1 Total Defense in all of FBS going into the Liberty Bowl today.
Wisconsin slipped to 6th (299.9 ypg) by giving up 518 total yards to Wake Forest.

Army's defense is my personal pick as the key to an Army victory over WVU. Army has consistently held opponents to less than their season averages for points scored and yards gained. I see the Army team excited to play and brings to the field the toughness that has defined this team all season. Add to that a weather forecast of rain and strong winds that affects a team like WVU's passing more than Army's run offense, it favors the Black Knights.

Army will win a close, low scoring, hard fought game today.
 
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ccsblackknights

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Hey Mountaineer fans, it is going to be close, but by the 4th quarter, the narrative will be this

300px-RearView.jpg
 
Dec 31, 2020
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Hopping off your board. Good luck!! Honored to play you!!! Great, DISCIPLINED program as to be expected. Might hop back on here afterwards. Enjoy!! Let’s Go Mountaineers!!
 

ashokan

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I've seen a lot of WV games because I watched a lot of Rutgers games since the Pat White, Steven Slaton days. WV is almost always hard to keep down when you get ahead of them. You can be 3 scores up and then they are back on you in 4th. Good football program