Army takes an early lead, but looks schematically underprepared at times with Navy having an extra week to prepare, more film on Army in a big game last weekend, and the return of Blake Horvath rejuvenating an offense that has struggled as of late. Army cannot capitalize off of time of possession as it often has, and the game stays close into the 4th quarter, largely due to the Navy passing game and play action that is then set up against a less rested Army defense. Army survives a late surge by Navy with a 4th quarter turnover and eventual adjustment to the Navy pass attack.
Final Score
Army: 27
Navy: 24
Bold Predictions: Navy misses a field goal, looses 2+ turnovers, and Blake Horvath completes less than 40% of his passes.
Keys to the game
Army: Contain the pass, then the run. Stop the QB run. Stay disciplined for trick plays as seen in most of Navy's big games to date.
Navy: Create deep strikes to spread out the Army defense. Go for 4th and short/medium (Army has given up 50%+ in 5 of its last 6 games). Stop the #1 rushing attack in the country.
Key stats: QBR, passing completion %, yards per pass, # deep (20+ yd) completions, and total passing yards. The winner of 3 of those 5 stats wins the game. The passing game will set up the run more than in any other game with the Army/Navy styles of offense and in these weather conditions.
Gameplay questions: Can Blake Horvath perform similarly to the first half of the season, off of several crucial injuries? Can Army stop the pass (and eventually, trick plays) after showing so much of its playbook on film against an opponent who beat Navy 35-0? Can Army fix some critical special teams struggles that have consistently appeared, but have not fully come to fruition in a game-changing way since they played Notre Dame?
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