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Basketball Won-Loss Projection for 2013-14 Season

E2dog82

Cow
Gold Member
Dec 23, 2011
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Well Army is picked to finish third in the Patriot League pre-season poll. I just hope that expectations haven't risen too high. Similar to last year I think that they will be a team that wins when the 3's are falling for them. I expect that they'll have a couple of surprising wins, but also a couple of defeats to teams that they should beat. 19 wins is fairly realistic.

Largely, I think that their success will depend on ball handling--i.e. the extent to which they can cut down on the number of boneheaded turnovers that have been their downfall in the past. I'm hoping that the departure of Ella Ellis won't show that the team's chemistry depended on him the way that the Football team's triple option depended on Trent Steelman for ultimate success in the win column.

Typical of the pattern of the past several years the non-conference schedule is rather soft with only Notre Dame and Rutgers as noteworthy opponents. I'm projecting a lot of early season success with an 8-3 record going into Patriot League play. Also as is typical, I think that the Patriot League schedule will prove more challenging than the pre-season poll indicates, especially with Boston University and Loyola of Maryland entering the league this year. I'm thinking 10-8 in league play with a 1-1 record in the end-of-season tournament. A game-by-game breakdown is as follows:

Air Force - Win 1-0 (All Military Classic at VMI)
VMI or Citadel - Win 2-0 (All Military Classic at VMI)
NJIT - Win 3-0
Delaware - Loss 3-1
at Notre Dame - Loss 3-2
Houston Baptist - Win 4-2
at Columbia - Win 5-2
St. Francis NY - Win 6-2
at Maine - Win 7-2
at Rutgers - Loss 7-3
Coast Guard - Win 8-3
at Lafayette - Loss 8-4
Loyola MD - Win 9-4
at Lehigh - Win 10-4
at Navy - Loss 10-5
Holy Cross - Win 11-5
Bucknell - Win 12-5
at Colgate - Loss 12-6
American - Win 13-6
Boston U. - Loss 13-7
at Loyola MD - Loss 13-8
Lehigh - Win 14-8
Navy - Win 15-8
at Holy Cross - Win 16-8
at Bucknell - Loss 16-9
Colgate - Win 17-9
at American - Win 18-9
Boston U. - Loss 18-10
Lafayette - Loss 18-11
P-League Tourney #1 - Win 19-11
P-League Tourney #2 - Loss 19-12

I'll be in the stands in Lexington, VA cheering on the team in the All Military Classic.

BEAT AIR FORCE!





2013-14 Patriot League Men's Basketball Preseason
 
After splitting 2 games in Virginia, Army is where they were last year.... or are we ? AF was subsequently easily beaten by VMI playing without their 6 leading scorers from last season. We again found a way to turn a lead mid-way into the second half into a double digit loss . I define that as a step back. The win against The Citadel was anticipated as they are considered one of the bottom 20 programs in the country coming into the season.

Your assessment of the early season suggests we should pile up wins against a very weak schedule. Let's hope you are right. I suspect sailing in conference will be a bit more challenging that your crystal ball sees. Given that last year was the first time in 30 years that Army had a winning record in conference since joining the Patriot League I think the odds are we will recede a bit this year after losing one of our finest players in a generation in Ella Ellis and the addition of 2 top half of the league type programs in Loyola - Md. and Boston Univ.

A 6-7 win season in league play would be my initial assessment adding up to a 14 or so win season. Lets see if the team steps forward through the remainder of 2013 as they prepare for League play.
 
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