Have been thinking about some general parameters of a successful season for a SA program. Granted the CiC is the ultimate goal. But let's just say that we focus in on an agnostic win-loss total. Took a look back at AF and Navy from 2002-2015 as clearly the most relevant benchmarks:
AF averaged 6.8 wins a season
Navy averaged 8.1 wins a season
Sadly, for several of those years Army was a gimme win and that is no longer the case. So factoring that in, it seems that ~7 wins is a fine run-rate.
I bring this up as it seems like there is palpable disappointment that we may not win 9-10 games this year given the Buffalo loss. I base this more on wild and often times weird FB comments than on comments on this site.
And while Army football has had an unmatched rough 20 years, I wonder if we may forget the down years at AF and Navy. Of note, here's AF:
2004: 5-6
2005: 4-7
2006: 4-8
2012: 6-7
2013: 2-10
Navy has been the best performing SA, but even with the incomparable K. Reynolds, they went 8-5 in 2012 and 2014. Last really down year 5-7 in 2011.
On a bit of separate note, I went and looked at the Navy "turn around" season of 2004 which many sight as the reason why we should have expected JM to improve so much more in YR2. Navy only played 2 winning teams that whole year: Delaware (FCS) and then New Mexico in bowl game. One of the teams Northeastern doesn't even have a football team anymore.
Ultimately, I'm excited about what I have seen this year and what it potentially means for the future. My concern is that expectations might have gotten a bit too optimistic. I really do think JM is building a team that gets us in the 6-10 win zone consistently. But, I also know that not every season is going to deliver the wins we want. However, I hope we learn the lesson of consistency in building a quality program.